出国留学首选一诺留学

　　中英文本

　　Bagehot

　　白芝浩

　　General Osborne

　　奥斯本将军

　　The chancellor's fifth budget was full of trickery—yetutterly serious

　　财政大臣发布的第五个财政预算诡计连连—但确实严肃

　　“NOW this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end ofthe beginning.” Churchill's genius for spin, after El Alamein had delivered the first big Britishvictory of the second world war, is illustrated by how little-remembered are the modest claimshe went on to make for that triumph. “Henceforth,” he continued, “Hitler's Nazis will meetequally well-armed, and perhaps better-armed, troops.” That was a weaselly fudge if everBagehot heard one.

　　“现在还没到结局的时候，甚至这不是结局的起点，但是这是开始的终点。”当阿拉曼传来英国在二战中首次大捷的消息后，丘吉尔在其用来称赞此次胜利的公告中有这么几句不引人注意却又最贴切的话，这使得丘吉尔口吐莲花的天赋显露无遗。他继续说道“今后，希特勒的纳粹军队会遭遇装备同样精良，甚至是更好的军队。” 如果白芝浩听到过含糊的外交辞令，也还会认为这是相当狡猾的一句。

　　George Osborne faced a similarly daunting exercise in expectations management whendelivering his fifth budget on March 19th. Wan with nerves, the chancellor of the exchequerwas able to announce to Parliament the best economic figures in five years of faltering growth,falling living standards and painful spending cuts. The economy is growing faster than in anyother large rich country. It is creating record numbers of jobs: for the first time in threedecades Britain's employment rate is higher than America's. The budget deficit is edgingdownwards. The difficulty for the chancellor was that, having been for so long denied, peoplewant jam, which he was bound to refuse them. The deficit, at around ￡108 billion ($179 billion)this year, or 6.6% of GDP, is too large to support the tax cuts that many of his Conservativecolleagues are demanding. But, while bound to disappoint, Mr Osborne needed to avoidseeming so cautious as to crush confidence in the recovery and his own stewardship of it.His task was to celebrate and reassure, yet give away almost nothing.

　　3月19日，奥斯本提交其第五个财政预算报告，并回应大众的期待。这与(丘吉尔)如临深渊的情形十分相似。这位财政大臣面色苍白，紧张兮兮地向国会宣读了经济疲软、生活标准下降和财政紧缩的五年以来令人振奋的经济数据。英国的经济增长比其他的大经济体都要快。新增就业数量破了纪录：三十年来英国就业率头一次超越美国。而财政赤字也正快速下降。不可否认，人民是想要甜头的。奥斯本的困难在于他决心拒绝这种诉求。今年的赤字约有1080亿英镑(1790亿美元)，占GDP6.6%。 如果按照一些奥斯本的保守党同僚的盘算的那样削减税收，这赤字就规模太大而无法给予支持。但他必须避免因为态度谨慎而打击了(人们)对经济复苏的信心，以及他对党的领导。他的任务本来就是欢呼庆祝，巩固经济势头，而不能给(民众)添福利。

　　He managed that, first by reminding Britons of the state they were in when the Tory-ledcoalition took over in 2010. The economy had suffered the deepest recession of modern timesand seen the world's biggest bank bail-out. The government was borrowing a quarter of whatit spent. That history lesson done with, Mr Osborne began to relax, and a dab of colourreturned to his pallid cheeks. Britain was recovering from these horrors, he said, because of itsadherence to “the plan”.

　　他做到了。首先，在托尼领导的党派联盟2010年赢得大选时，他就提醒英国民众英国当时的状况。此次经济衰退为进入现代历史以来最为严重的一次。本国银行纾困的规模也举世罕见。政府四分之一的开支由借贷而来。好在这段历史翻过去了。奥斯本可以放松，一抹血色也出现在他苍白的脸颊上。他说，英国在这些可怕的情况中走出来了，这要归功于贯彻下来的(经济) “计划”。

　　He referred to a raft of spending cuts, tax increases and pro-business gestures designed witha view to restoring the public finances to surplus by 2018. That target is, in fact, less fixedthan Mr Osborne implies. It was pushed back several times while the economy languished: thedeficit was originally to have been closed before next year's general election. The plan is, inshort, little more than an expression of the chancellor's own shifting economic judgment.

　　他指的计划是减少开支，增加税收和刺激商业等一揽子措施，以期2018年时公共财政能增长且有盈余。这个目标其实并不像奥斯本说的那么坚决。经济不景气时，计划推迟了好几次：本来明年大选之前赤字应该消除了的。简而言之，这个计划不过是奥斯本自己对不断变化的经济结论的一个表达。

　　No matter. The recovery, and his political rivals' failure to predict it, has enshrined the plan assacred and inflexible. This is a mark of the political capital Mr Osborne is now drawing on, evenas he admitted the economy's many remaining weaknesses. His Labour Party rival, the shadowchancellor Ed Balls, who chuntered grudgingly throughout the budget speech, appears tohave been outdone. So have Mr Osborne's many erstwhile Tory critics. The apparentlydaunting task of arguing that the economy is stronger yet still too weak for giveaways turnedout to be a cinch. The chancellor was triumphant.

　　不过这没什么关系。经济复苏了，他的政治对手又没有预料到这一点，使得这个计划变得神圣不可动摇。这也是奥斯本所倚重的标志性政治资本，即便他承认经济还有还多缺点。他的工党对手，影子财政大臣艾德.鲍斯在整个演讲期间都心有不甘的喃喃自语，看上去已经被淘汰了。托尼.布莱尔执政时期很多批评奥斯本的人也是这样。至于那个显然烫手山芋似的任务，即申明经济虽然好转但依然无力分派福利，现在也把握十足。奥斯本现在得意万分。