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　　Science and technology Weather forecastingContinental divide

　　科学技术 天气预报 差距

　　Europeans do not just talk about the weather morethan Americans do.

　　欧洲人不仅比美国人更喜欢谈论天气，

　　They are better at forecasting it as well

　　而且也更擅长预测天气。

　　IT WAS far too small a victory to count as an equaliser.

　　美国目前的全球预报系统与欧洲中期天气预报中心的天气预报能力可谓平分秋色。

　　But cheers were still heard in American meteorological circles after the storm that hit thecountry's east coast last month left the city of New York mostly unscathed.

　　上月，一场暴风雪袭击了美国东海岸，纽约所受影响较小。对于这次暴风雪的预测，全球预报系统的准确度小占上风。

　　For more than two decades the Global Forecast System (GFS), the leading weather-predictionmodel produced in the United States, has been notably less accurate than its chief competitor,published by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

　　较之二者，全球预报系统所得成功虽微不足道，但美国气象界仍对此大呼叫好。全球预报系统是美国最为先进的天气预报模型，二十多年来，它发布的天气预测准确性显然落后于它的劲敌--欧洲中期天气预报中心。

　　Although this deficit went largely unnoticed for years, it was laid bare by Hurricane Sandy.

　　多年以来，公众对此差距几乎全然不知，但是飓风桑迪的袭击让人们注意到了二者的差距。

　　A week before that storm's landfall in 2012, the ECMWF predicted it would veer towards thecoast while the GFS showed it remaining at sea.

　　三年前，在飓风桑迪登陆的一周前，欧洲中期天气预报中心预测飓风会径直朝沿海运动，但全球预报系统却预测它会停留在海面。

　　In response to this failure, America's Congress authorised 34m of extra money to spend onforecasting.

　　在这场对飓风桑迪的预测较量中全球预报系统失败了，为此美国国会批准了一笔数额高达340万美元的投资，用于升级全球预报系统。

　　A new version of the GFS went into operation on January 14th, and two weeks later it passedwith flying colours.

　　1月14日，升级后的全球预报系统投入运行，仅两个星期后它就斩获成功。

　　On January 25th the ECMWF predicted that New York would, on the 27th, labour under 64cm(25 inches) of snow brought by the storm pictured above.

　　1月25日，欧洲中期天气预报中心预测纽约将在27日遭到暴雪袭击，城市积雪可达64英寸之厚。

　　The GFS suggested 18cm. That turned out to be far closer to the truth.

　　但全球预报系统却预报积雪厚度为18厘米，最后事实证明后者预测更为准确。

　　It is, however, too early for the Americans to celebrate.

　　全球预报系统升级之后牛刀小试便获成功，但美国人可别高兴得太早。

　　The GFS projection for the blizzard's western edge differed from the ECMWF's by 200km (120miles)—a weather-forecasting hairs'-breadth.

　　全球预报系统对此次暴风雪的西部锋面长度与欧洲中期天气预报中心所得预测相差200公里，这个差值在本次预报中至关重要。

　　The only reason anyone noticed this discrepancy was that the gap happened to encompass thecountry's most populous city.

　　因为相差200公里的锋面却正好萦绕在了纽约这座美国最为繁华的都市上空，这引起了人们的注意。

　　This episode, moreover, may have been a fluke.

　　全球预报系统这次预报相对准确或为侥幸成功。