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　　In the European union   Austria, Denmark, Greece, Ireland and Portugal are strongly anti-nuclear,but the EU as a whole is unlikely to go their way. Its response to Fukushima has been to callfor “stress tests” of its members’ reactors. Britain, the Czech Republic and Finland hope soonto build some more. Finland and France, which produces more of its electricity in nuclear plantsthan any other big country, each have under construction a plant of the European PressurisedReactor (EPR) design developed by AREVA, a French industrial group. Plans may be delayed ordiminished, but a complete halt to building is unlikely.

　　而在欧盟，奥地利、丹麦、希腊、爱尔兰以及葡萄牙抱有强烈的反核态度，不过欧盟整体上不太可能遵循它们的这一立场。对于福岛核事故，欧盟所作反应是号召对其成员国的反应堆进行“压力测试”。英国、捷克以及芬兰有望很快建设更多的反应堆。法国通过核电站发电的比例高于其他任何大国，该国与芬兰各自都在建设一座由法国工业集团阿海珐公司(AREVA)开发的欧洲压水堆(EPR)型核电站。核开发计划或许会被推迟或缩减，但完全停止建造的可能性不大。

　　France, in particular, seems certain to remainresolutely pro-nuclear. The French nuclear industrymay even see Fukushima as an opportunity. TheEPR is touted as being especially safe: if concernsabout safety could be turned into a regulatory casefor building only EPRs in Europe, so much the better.The British, Czechs and Finns, who are all alsolooking at a design by America’s Westinghouse (theFinns are examining a South Korean one, too), wouldnot be keen to be captive customers, but they maychoose EPRs anyway.

　　尤其是法国，看似肯定将继续坚定地支持核能。法国核能产业可能甚至将福岛事故视为一次机遇。欧洲压水堆被宣称为格外安全：如果对安全的关切能转化为欧洲只能建造欧洲压水堆的监管问题，那就更好了。英国人、捷克人和芬兰人也都在关注美国西屋公司的一款设计(芬兰人还在审视韩国的一款反应堆)，他们不会乐于使自己的选择局限于法国，不过他们或许仍会选择欧洲压水堆。

　　The most labile European country on matters nuclear has, not surprisingly, been Germany,where great engineering and anti-nuclear sentiment have long coexisted uneasily. In 2002 thethen centre-left government said it would phase out nuclear power by 2022. Last year thecurrent, centre-right lot extended the lives of seven ageing reactors by eight years. Inresponse to Fukushima it shut them again, at first for three months.

　　不出所料，在核问题上立场最不稳定的欧洲国家一直是德国，该国强大的工程技术与反核情绪在不安状态中长期共存。2002年，当时执政的中左翼政府宣称将于2022年前逐步淘汰核能;而在去年，目前执政的中右翼人士则将7座日渐老化的反应堆的寿命延长了8年。作为对福岛核事故的回应，德国政府再度关闭了这些反应堆，关停期最初定为3个月。

　　Getting gas利用天然气

　　Some or all of those plants may not reopen. If none did, then according to Stefan W??chter ofPoint Carbon, a research firm, German carbon-dioxide emissions would increase by 435mtonnes in the decade to 2020. Analysis by Deutsche Bank suggests that at least 23 gigawattsof new gas-fired capacity would need to be built by the same year. Gas-fired plants are thenatural short-term response in part because Germany’s grid cannot take much more in termsof renewables (of which the country already has a lot) both because of their peaks and troughsand because some would need to be offshore. That said, demand for renewables elsewheremight increase, as Germany’s extra use of fossil fuels pushed up the price of carbon in Europe’semissions-trading scheme.

　　这些核电站中的部分或者全部可能不会再重新启用。如果它们全部关闭的话，那么根据供职于点碳(PointCarbon) 研究公司的斯蒂凡??瓦赫特(Stefan W??chter)的说法，德国的二氧化碳排放量将在2020年前的10年间增长4.35亿吨。德意志银行的分析表明，德国需在2020年前至少新增230亿瓦燃气发电量。部分是由于德国电网无法再承载多少可再生能源(该国已在大量利用可再生能源)，因此燃气发电厂成了一种自然而然的短期应对措施;之所以无法承载，既是因为可再生能源的峰谷波动，又是因为部分项目需要离岸建设。话虽如此，但由于德国对化石燃料的额外使用推高了欧洲排放交易体系的碳价格，因此其他地区对可再生能源的需求有可能增加。

　　In its likely switch to gas, Germany reflects the probable post-Fukushima world. In any countrywhere nuclear provides less electricity than had been expected, in the near term gas is favouriteto make up the shortfall. Société Générale’s analysis suggests that a full withdrawal fromnuclear by OECD countries would increase demand for gas by more than 400 billion cubicmetres a year by 2045.

　　在可能转而使用天然气一事上，德国反映出了后福岛世界的可能景象。在任何核发电量少于此前预期的国家，近期内弥补短缺的最佳选择便是天然气。兴业银行分析报告提出：若经合组织国家完全放弃核能，到2045年时，天然气的年需求量将会增加4000亿立方米以上。

　　In America and Canada the nuclear slack could be taken up by domestically produced gas,Société Générale reckons, reflecting the sheer scale of the shale-gas revolution there. Therest of the world would either buy liquefied natural gas (LNG) or get gas in pipelines, a prospectthat relations with Russia have made irksome to some. Energy-security concerns partlyexplained why Germany decided to delay its phasing out of nuclear plants. Now it and otherEuropean countries may buy a lot more Russian gas. To Russia one of the attractions ofcontinuing with nuclear power is that it frees gas for export.

　　兴业银行估计，美国和加拿大的核发电量下降可以通过国产天然气弥补，这反映出美加两国页岩气革命的真实规模。世界其他地区则得在购买液化天然气与通过管道进口天然气之间做出选择，而与俄罗斯的关系则已使后一种前景令某些国家感到苦恼。对于能源安全的关切可以部分解释德国为何决定推迟对核电站的逐步淘汰。如今，德国和其他欧洲国家或许会购买远多于此前的俄罗斯天然气。对于俄罗斯而言，继续利用核能的吸引力之一则在于，它使得天然气可被用于出口。

　　Yet a gassier Europe may not need to worry toomuch about security of supply. At least in the nearterm there is plenty of LNG because capacityoriginally intended to serve America is no longerneeded for that purpose. This is good news forEurope and for Japan, which in the short run needsgas and oil to make up for lost production atFukushima and other nuclear plants closed in theearthquake’s aftermath, regardless of its long-termchoices.

　　然而，燃气比例更高的欧洲也许不必过多地为供应安全感到担忧。由于原本旨在供应美国的液化天然气产能已无需用于这一目的，因此至少在短期之内，将有充足的液化天然气供应。这对于欧洲和日本来说是一条好消息，无论日本作何长期选择，该国在短期之内需要依靠天然气和石油来弥补福岛核电站以及其他在地震余波中关闭的核电站的产能损失。

　　Some expect this surplus to last throughout the 2010s, as new sources become available.Others fear, or hope, that the market could tighten quite quickly. Paul McConnell of WoodMackenzie, another research firm, has argued that for China to meet a pledged 40% reductionin the carbon intensity of its economy by 2020 would require a lot more gas than currentlyexpected. If nuclear plants contribute less, that will be truer than ever. But though gas supplymay tighten, there is still, by all estimates, a lot of it around for the medium to long term.

　　某些人士预计，随着新的来源可资利用，这种供应过剩将会在整个21世纪10年代中持续;其他人士则担心(或者希望)市场将会很快趋紧。另一家研究公司——伍德麦肯兹公司(Wood Mackenzie)的保罗??麦康奈尔(Paul McConnell)已经指出，中国若想在2020年前实现其经济碳密度降低四成的承诺，该国的天然气需求量就将远远高于现有预期。如果核电站的发电量减少，情况就更是如此。不过，尽管天然气供应或将趋紧，但所有预测都认为在中长期时段上，仍然会有大量天然气。