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　　The 14% solution14%解决方案

　　Nuclear power thus looks dangerous, unpopular, expensive and risky. It is replaceable withrelative ease and could be forgone with no huge structural shifts in the way the world works. Sowhat would the world be like without it?

　　有鉴于此，核能看起来既危险而不受欢迎，又昂贵且存在风险。人们可以相对轻松地用其他能源取而代之，而放弃核能又不会对世界的运行模式带来巨大的结构性变化。那么，没有核能的世界又将是怎样一番模样呢?

　　The most obvious answer is: a bit warmer. In 2009 the world’s electricity generators emittedabout 9 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, out of an industrial total of 30 billion tonnes and agrand total, including deforestation and the effects of other gases, equivalent to some 50billion. Without nuclear power and with other fuels filling in its share pro rata, emissions fromgeneration would have been about 11 billion tonnes. The difference is roughly equal to the totalannual emissions of Germany and Japan combined.

　　最明显的答案便是：世界将变得更温暖一些。2009年，全球发电设备共排放二氧化碳90亿吨左右，工业总排放量为300亿吨，而将毁林和其他(温室)气体效应包含在内的排放总量约等于500亿吨。当核能被放弃，而其份额被其他燃料按比例填补时，发电所排放的二氧化碳将达到110亿吨左右。两者差额几乎等于德国和日本的年排放总量。

　　To put that in perspective, in 2010 the UNEnvironment Programme estimated that for the worldto have a reasonable chance of limiting globalwarming to less than 2°C, carbon-dioxide emissionsshould be reduced to 44 billion tonnes by 2020. Withbusiness as usual, emissions would be between 54billion and 60 billion tonnes. If countries took themost ambitious of the courses of action that theyhave outlined to the UN, the figure comes down toabout 49 billion tonnes, leaving an “emissions gap” of5 billion tonnes that seems highly unlikely to bebridged. So the 2 billion tonnes saved by nuclear power is not vast, but it is significant.

　　其中的意义在于，联合国环境规划署曾在2010年进行估算，若想让世界有合理的机会将全球变暖的幅度限制在2摄氏度以下，则二氧化碳排放量应当在2020年时被削减至440亿吨。若按正常状况计算，排放量将在540亿吨至600亿吨之间。如果各国在其向联合国列出的各种行动路径中选取目标最为宏大的一种，则这一数字将降至490亿吨左右，而这将留下似乎很难弥合的50亿吨“排放缺口”。因此，核能所节约的20亿吨数量虽不巨大，但意义却颇为重大。

　　That said, a complete withdrawal from nuclear energy is not on the cards. Though China,which has 77 reactors at various stages of construction, planning and discussion, has said itwill review its programme in the aftermath of Fukushima, few expect it to stop entirely. Chinahas a great appetite for energy, which will continue to grow. For now its energy sector is highlyconcentrated on coal, but so that the country can both diversify and clean its air China’slatest five-year plan aims for growth in all sorts of non-coal energy, including wind power, gasand nuclear. Adverse public opinion and the additional cost of capital caused by uncertaintiesover regulatory approval have much less salience in China than elsewhere.

　　这意味着核能不太可能被全面放弃。尽管有77座正处在建设、规划和讨论等不同阶段的反应堆的中国，已经表示将在福岛事故之后重审其计划，但很少有人认为中国将全面停止核计划。中国对能源的胃口极大，而且这种欲求还将继续膨胀。目前，中国能源领域高度集中于煤炭，不过，因为该国既能使能源多元化，又能改善其空气质量，因此中国最新的五年规划以各类非煤炭能源的增长为目标，其中包括风力、天然气和核能。在中国，公众的反对态度以及由获得监管部门批准的不确定性所导致的资本额外成本，其显著意义要远远小于其他国家。

　　Some other countries will also go ahead: Russia says it sees no reason to stop work on tenreactors that are in development. But there could still be a widespread withdrawal from thetechnology by OECD countries, caused by national changes in policy or stiffer local opposition.And grand though China’s ambitions are, for now OECD countries produce more than 80% ofthe world’s nuclear electricity.

　　其他某些国家也会继续开发核电：俄罗斯表示并未发现停止建设开发中的10座反应堆的理由。不过，经合组织国家却仍有可能因为国家政策变化或地区更强硬的反对而普遍放弃核电技术。而且，尽管中国雄心勃勃，但目前经合组织国家的核发电量超过全球核电总产量的八成。

　　Analysts at Société Générale, a French bank, argue that if these rich countries built no morereactors and allowed existing ones to close at the end of their planned lives, an extra 860mtonnes of carbon a year would be emitted, on average, from 2010 to 2030. This mayunderestimate the impact on the system as a whole, because nuclear plants and large damsare the only broadly reliable sources of baseload electricity that do not burn fossil fuels.Although renewable capacity has been added quickly in some countries, you cannot be surethat the wind will blow or the sun will shine to order. A fair part of this can be smoothed out ifthe various sources are linked into an electric grid that is sufficiently large, robust and smart,but that does not obviate all the need for baseload.

　　法国兴业银行(Société Générale)分析师提出：如果这些富裕国家不再建造更多的反应堆，并让现有反应堆在其设计寿命到期后关闭的话，在2010至2030年间，平均每年将额外排放8.6亿吨碳。这或许低估了它对整个体系带来的冲击，因为在不燃烧化石燃料的基本电力负载来源中，只有核电站和大坝基本可靠。尽管一些国家的可再生能源产能已在快速增长，但人们却不能确定风和阳光能够按需而至。如将不同能量来源联入一张足够庞大、稳健、智能的电网，则此问题能有一大部分得到解决，但这并不会完全消除对基本负载的各种需求。