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　　中英文本

　　The housing market

　　房市

　　Cool it

　　该降温了

　　Property prices are rising swiftly. The Bank ofEngland may intervene

　　房价一路攀登，英格兰银行可能插手

　　BRITAIN'S housing market is like food in a microwave, says Spencer Dale, the chief economist atthe Bank of England. It can “turn from lukewarm to scalding hot in a matter of a few economicseconds”. Since the crisis the bank has gained new tools to control the market's temperature.Now that the heat is rising, it may soon start testing them out.

　　英格兰首席经济学家斯宾塞·戴尔说，英国房市就像微波炉里的食品,“从经济角度来看，几秒之内就能从温热到滚烫”。自欧债危机以来，银行已经学到了一种控制市场温度的新手段。然而现在随着市场升温，这些新手段或许也要开始接受全面考验。

　　Until last year house prices were rising predominantly in prosperous central London boroughs.That was largely because of an influx of cash-rich buyers, says Neal Hudson of Savills, anestate agency. People saw posh property in the capital as a shelter from economic turmoilabroad. Elsewhere in Britain, the housing market was torpid. Potential buyers struggled to findmortgages. Falling real wages, economic uncertainty and the memory of plummeting houseprices during the crisis curbed Britons' obsession with property.

　　繁华的伦敦中心市镇去年房价还在显著上升。第一太平戴维斯房地产机构的尼尔·哈德逊称，这种现象主要是土豪扎堆造成的。人们把首都地区豪华时髦的地产看作躲避动荡的国外经济的避难所。在英国的其他地区，房市也很萎靡不振。潜在买家为了房屋贷款垂死挣扎。经济危机期间下降的实际工资、经济的不确定性以及直线下降的房价遏制了英国人对房产的痴迷。

　　That changed in 2013. Prices rose by 6.8% in the year to January, according to the Office forNational Statistics. They are still increasing fastest in London—up 13.2% compared with lastyear—but the inflation has spread to outer boroughs. In Brent, an unfashionable part ofnorth-west London, prices have risen 31% in a year, according to a report from Nationwide, abuilding society. It recorded chunky increases in every part of Britain.

　　2013年情况有所改变。根据国家统计局数据，直至今年一月，房价已上涨了6.8个百分点。伦敦房价还在以最快速度增长—与去年相比增长了13.2%—但是通货膨胀已经变得一发不可收拾，甚至影响到了伦敦以外的地方。据全英房屋抵押贷款协会报道显示，作为伦敦西北部不甚有名的博伦特，其房价一年内就已经上涨了31%。此外，英国各地房价都出现了前所未有的大幅提升。

　　These higher prices are a problem for first-time buyers, but they are not yet unsustainable.Nationally, house prices remain 16% below their pre-crisis peak, adjusted for inflation. Pricesare high relative to wages, but that is not surprising. Successive governments have failed tofree enough land for new housing developments, while doggedly preserving green belts.Borrowing costs have fallen over recent decades, in part because of a global glut of savings,making it easier for Britons to sustain large mortgages. Neither factor is likely to reverse anytime soon.

　　对于首次购房者来说，房价更高是一个问题,但是这种价格还可能持续。在全国范围内,房价仍比危机前为了通货膨胀做出调整的峰值水平低16%。房价比工资更高,但这并不令人惊讶。历届政府都未能给新住宅开发用地留下足够空间，而固执地保留绿化带。最近几十年借贷成本下降，部分原因是全球储蓄过剩,使英国人更容易持有大量的抵押贷款。而这两个因素近期都不可改变。

　　Even so, the housing market is notoriously prone to bubbles. In January Mark Carney, thebank's governor, warned MPs of the dangers of “extrapolative expectations”—people rushing tobuy on the assumption that prices will continue to surge. Hints of that are visible. Peopleincreasingly think house prices will keep climbing. Even though the government's “Help to Buy”schemes, which subsidise higher-risk mortgages, are probably having only a moderate directimpact, publicity surrounding them has fed a broader conviction that prices can only go up.

　　即使如此，房地产市场还是容易出现泡沫。1月, 央行行长马克·卡尼警告国会议员关于“外推预测”的危险——人们争相把钱投向“房价会持续上涨”这样一个预设(当然这种预设也并非没有可能实现)。人们越来越觉得房价会持续上涨。即使这样，政府提出的平息高风险抵押贷款的“帮助购房”政策也可能只能带来些微影响，因为周边环境和舆论让人们相信房价还是会持续上升。