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　　Is the Bloom Off the Rose of China’s Economic Miracle?

　　Like looking in a funhouse distorted mirror, China reflects back at you what you want to see—and it always has.就像是在开心屋里照哈哈镜，你看到的中国都是你希望看到的——历来如此。

　　Sometimes it has been the relentlessly positive view of the land of ever expanding markets the Lancashire mill owner dreamed of in the 19th century when mentally adding an inch to every Chinese shirttail, or the land of ubiquitous penetration today’s smartphone analysts extrapolate on a straight line from today’s 40%. Sometimes it has been the unremittingly negative view of a Yellow Peril washing over the earth as in the 19th century, or a cascade of falling dominos spreading Communism in the 1960s.有时候，你看到的观点积极得势不可挡，认为这块土地是个永远扩张的市场——就像19世纪兰开夏郡(Lancashire)的纺织厂主乐观高估中国的布料需求量，相当于把每个中国人的长衫都加长了一英寸;或者认为中国市场可以无限饱和——就像当今的智能手机分析师在预测中国市场普及率时，从目前的40%直线外推。有时候，你看到的是固执的负面看法，就像19世纪时有人认为“黄祸”(Yellow Peril)在洗劫世界，或是上世纪60年代有人认为多米诺骨牌不断倒下，共产党在一个又一个国家夺取政权。

　　We’re just coming off a period when it was, by near unanimous acclimation, China’s century. Posh Western families gave their children Chinese nannies to sing them Mandarin lullabies to better prepare them for a Goldman Sachs intern competition 20 years hence; hipsters moved from Brooklyn to Beijing’s Sanlitun to notch their belt with cool experiences; banks, brokerages, private equity houses, consultancies and media companies bulked up their Beijing and Shanghai offices to harvest the seemingly inevitable riches.我们刚刚告别了大家几乎一致认为是“中国世纪”的时代。赶时髦的西方家庭给自己的孩子请了中国保姆，让孩子们听中文摇篮曲，让他们在20年后更加胸有成竹地投入高盛(Goldman Sachs)的实习竞争;潮人们从纽约布鲁克林搬到北京的三里屯，以炫酷的经历妆点自己的履历;银行、经纪商、私人股本公司、咨询机构以及媒体公司纷纷扩充北京和上海的办事处，以获取看似手到擒来的财富。

　　But how much of the investment and planning was ever based on hard analysis versus emotion and momentum?但是，其中有多少投资和规划是基于严谨分析、而不是基于情绪和时尚潮流呢?

　　One need only read back a bit in the archives to see some people making decisions based on Chinese economic data, then writing long screeds decrying the value and accuracy of said statistics, then panicking when those self-same statistics looked bad, then criticizing those statistics again, and finally—as we saw this week—saying the current market carnage would only stop when Chinese statistics took a turn for the better!人们只需要稍稍看一下过去的档案就能发现，一些人基于中国的经济数据作出决策，然后写下长篇大论谴责这些统计数据的价值和准确性，然后在这些数据看似糟糕时恐慌不已，接着再次批评那些数据，最后——正如我们最近所看到的——表示，只有中国的数据出现好转时，当前的市场灾难才会结束。

　　Much of this is China’s own fault for making its system and workings so opaque. That opacity and lack of transparency is precisely what has created romance and stirred the emotions.这一状况在很大程度上是中国自己的过错造成的，它使自己的体制和运作如此不透明。正是不透明制造了传奇，搅动了情绪。

　　Emotional investments, however, revert to the mean in the same way financial investments do.然而，情绪投资也会回归均值，就像金融投资一样。

　　That reversion is precisely what we are seeing when an anchor for a major American news network claims he’s never heard the name of the president of the world’s most populous nation and its second largest economy. That’s what we see when a leading U.S. presidential candidate claims the Chinese president only deserves a fast food hamburger instead of a state dinner. And that’s what we’ll see when—and you can count on it—board room after board room will demand papers on whether “our China investment is worth it”.当美国一个大型新闻频道的主播声称自己从未听说过全球人口最多国家、世界第二大经济体的最高领导人的名字时，我们看到的正是这种回归;当美国一名领先的总统候选人竞争者声称中国国家主席只配汉堡快餐招待、而不配国宴礼遇时，我们看到的也是这种回归;当未来一个又一个董事会要求提交关于“我们在中国的投资是否值得”的报告(你可以肯定会出现这种局面)时，我们将看到的也是这种回归。

　　One need only look to Japan for the model (much as Beijing’s leaders might hate that comparison, particularly as “Victory day” approaches on September 3). In the 1980s, Japan was “Number One”; its wise bureaucrats could do no wrong in working with industry to steer the economy; the stock market moved ever upwards. Inevitably, U.S. students flocked to introductory Japanese courses; financial institutions and media companies bulked up their Tokyo presences; and all was rosy and bloomy—until it wasn’t. Today, though Japan is still the world’s third largest economy, the romance is off and few global companies give it an equivalent share of attention and investment.人们只需要把日本作为对照(虽然中国领导人可能会讨厌这种对比，特别是在9月3日“抗战胜利纪念日”临近之际)。在上世纪80年代，日本是“世界第一”;其英明的政府官僚在与工业界合作引导经济时所向披靡;股市一路上涨。不可避免地，美国学生蜂拥参加日语入门课程;金融机构和媒体纷纷落户东京抢占地盘;一切都是那么美好那么生机勃勃——直到情况急转直下。如今，尽管其仍然是全球第三大经济体，但日本传奇已经结束，几乎没有什么全球企业给予日本与其经济规模相称的关注和投资。

　　China has many real things going for it. Its huge population surely will produce more, consume more, and build more. Its cities will grow in number and size, as will its infrastructure needs and dreams. Both its currency and diplomacy will take on greater roles in the world. But what can’t be manufactured is the romance; what can’t be forced is the dream.中国有很多有利条件。其庞大的人口必定会带来更多的产出、更多的消费以及更多的建设。中国的城市在数量和规模上都将得到发展，其基础设施需求和梦想也会越来越大。人民币及中国外交将会在世界上扮演更大角色。但是传奇无法制造，梦想不能强求。

　　The future reapers of all that China has to offer will be the realists, not the dreamers. And that, while a painful transition, will probably be a good thing.未来能在中国有所斩获的人将是现实主义者，而非梦想家。尽管转变痛苦，但这很可能是一件好事。

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