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　　Leader_China’s equity bubble is a monumental distraction

　　In May alone, more than 12m equity trading accounts opened in China — a figure somewhat higher than the population of Greece. No wonder: a year of gains had helped the Chinese stock market put on $6.5tn in value. Since mid-June $2tn have disappeared. China may be experiencing an equity bubble only ever exceeded during the late 1990s US dotcom boom.仅在今年5月一个月，中国新开股票交易账户就超过了1200万——这一数字甚至略高于希腊人口总数。这并不奇怪：持续一年的上涨让中国股市市值增加了6.5 万亿美元。自6月中旬以来，2万亿美元市值已经灰飞烟灭。可能只有上世纪90年代末美国互联网热潮期间的股市泡沫，比中国正在经历的股市泡沫严重。

　　These numbers dwarf the billions of euros at stake in negotiations between Greece and its creditors. In light of such figures, it is fair to ask whether the world’s media is attending to the right global drama. As in Athens, events move at such a pace that keeping track is no easy task.以上数字让希腊与其债权人的谈判所涉及的区区几十亿欧元相形见绌。鉴于如此庞大的数字，我们有理由问全球媒体是否关注了正确的全球事件。追踪雅典瞬息万变的事态发展可不是个轻松活。

　　Friday saw over 7 per cent falls in Shenzhen and Shanghai indices, a rout that worsened on Monday, before a rebound the day after. Into the middle of this stepped the People’s Bank of China with a Saturday interest rate cut and an easing of reserve requirements, a move widely interpreted as being a response to the stock market turmoil.上周五，深圳和上海的股指下跌逾7%，本周一两大股指再次暴跌，随后在周二反弹。在此期间，中国央行于上周六宣布降息降准，此举被广泛解读为对股市暴跌的回应。

　　It is hard to tell whether such intervention works, or even what it working amounts to: central banks should stabilise the economy, not make life more predictable in the stock market. The possible arrival of the monetary cavalry may just serve to give speculators more to speculate about.很难说此类干预是否奏效，或者说这种干预到底算什么：央行应该稳定经济，而不是让股市更可预测。货币政策利好的可能出台，或许只会让投机者有更多机会投机。

　　A better question is what the non-speculative majority has to fear from China’s gyrating stock markets, either within its borders or beyond. The country faces a difficult economic transition, shifting from a dependence on credit-fuelled investment in property and infrastructure towards services and household spending.更好的问题是，对于中国暴涨暴跌的股市，绝大多数非投机性的境内外投资者应该担忧什么。中国面临艰难的经济转型，即摆脱对信贷助长的房地产和基础设施投资的依赖，转向服务业和家庭支出。

　　But calming a frenetic market is no part of this project. Some have even called the rally “state sanctioned”, and part of a broader strategy to shift the economy towards greater use of equity and move resources towards new industries. Indeed, while there is no shortage of research on the lasting damage caused by housing busts, plummeting equities deliver more of a glancing blow. After all, the purpose of equity is to absorb risk. Folk memory of how the Depression followed on the heels of the 1929 stock market crash implies too glib a causality; disastrous monetary policy is the likely cause of each. The way the US shrugged off the evaporation of $5tn in the dotcom bubble is more instructive.但让一个狂热的市场冷静下来并非经济转型的一部分。一些人甚至认为此轮上涨是“政府批准的”，是更宏大战略的一部分，该战略旨在让经济更多地利用股市，并将更多资源投向新兴产业。实际上，尽管不乏对房地产泡沫破裂之长期影响的研究，但股市暴跌的影响更多是短暂而间接的。毕竟，股市的用途就是吸收风险。人们还记得，1929年股市崩盘后接踵而至的是“大萧条”，但这种因果关系太牵强;每次萧条的真正祸首，可能是灾难性的货币政策。美国对互联网泡沫期间市值蒸发 5万亿美元不予理睬，这种做法更有启发意义。

　　If not its cause, others may wonder if the swooning equity market is the harbinger of economic distress. But this too is a difficult case to make. China has been slowing for a while, even as shares hit records. Shares in new-economy sectors have attracted the greatest speculative interest, whereas the broader economic slowdown is afflicting its older industries.如果说股市暴跌不是经济萧条的元凶，那么人们可能想知道，它是否是经济低迷的先兆。但这也很难证明。中国经济已经放缓了一段时间，甚至在股市飙升之际也在放缓。新兴产业领域的股票吸引的投机兴趣最大，而宏观经济放缓影响的是较为传统的行业。

　　The arrival of millions of ordinary punters, often to trade on margin, is a classic symptom of a bubble. Usually, knowing insiders then siphon away the newcomers’ savings — a matter of political concern, perhaps, but not an economic catastrophe. Where share price bubbles seem to cause damage, the real culprit is often the authorities overreacting and deploying the heavy weaponry of a monetary squeeze to dampen damaging “speculation”. In America in 1929 and Japan in 1990, such behaviour brought disaster.数百万普通投资者入市(他们中许多从事保证金交易)是泡沫的典型征兆。通常而言，消息灵通的圈内人士接下来会卷走新股民的储蓄——这或许是一件应引起政治关注的事，但它不是一场经济灾难。尽管股市泡沫似乎造成了伤害，但真正的罪魁祸首往往是那些反应过度、并动用货币挤压这一“重型武器”来打击破坏性“投机” 的有关部门。在1929年的美国和1990年的日本，此类行为引发了灾难。

　　On Saturday the speculators were lucky that their interests and those of the central bank happened to coincide. China’s growth is stuttering and deflation is proving hard to shake off, so monetary easing is just what is called for. This will not always be the case. The PBoC should continue to steer the economy by economic lights. As for the speculators, there is surely a phrase in Mandarin for “caveat emptor”.在上周六，投机者是幸运的，他们的利益碰巧和中国央行的利益一致。中国经济增长正步履蹒跚，通缩也挥之不去，因此正是需要货币宽松之时。情况不会一直如此。中国央行应该继续通过经济信号灯来引导经济。至于投机者，中文里肯定有“买者自负”的说法。

　　译者/邹策