出国留学首选一诺留学

　　A central problem of Italian democracy is that both its main parties are an ideological hotch-potch. On the left, the Democratic Party (PD) is the offspring of a marriage between ex-communists and former Christian Democrats. On the right, the PdL is the outcome of a mergerbetween reconstructed neo-fascists and Mr Berlusconi’s heterogeneous following ofopportunists, ex-socialists, conservatives and the odd liberal. Mr Monti has the chance to laythe foundations of an altogether more presentable conservative movement: an Italianreflection of the principles that inspire the European Peoples’ Party in the EuropeanParliament.

　　意大利民主政体的一个核心问题是主要政党都是思想大杂烩。左翼民主党(PD)是原共产主义者和前基督教民主党结合的后代。而右翼自由人民党是新法兰西主义者和贝卢斯科尼领导的由机会主义者，原社会主义者，保守党和奇怪的自由党组成的多种多样的追随者结合起来的产物。蒙蒂有机会为一场完全的更象样的保守运动打下基础：这项运动是对激励欧洲国会中的欧洲人民党的法则的意大利式的解读。

　　The building blocks already exist: the conservative union     of Christian and Centre Democrats(UDC); a new movement led by the chairman of Ferrari, Luca Cordero di Montezemolo, whichwas founded specifically as a vehicle for the prime minister; and other, smaller groups. MrMonti could steal votes from the PdL, which is in danger of breaking apart despite MrBerlusconi’s return and from the moderate wing of the PD. Above all, says Antonio Noto of IPRMarketing, “he could lure to the polls some of the 25% of Italians who say they are not temptedby any of the existing parties”, or even by the anti-establishment Five Star Movement led byBeppe Grillo, a former comedian.

　　构建基础已然存在：保守的基督教和中派民主党联盟;法拉利主席卢卡斯·柯德罗·迪·蒙特泽莫罗领导的专门为总理制造座驾的一项新运动;还包括其他规模较小的组织。虽然贝卢斯科尼复出，但是自由民主党依然面临着解体的危险，蒙蒂可以借此拉拢他们和中立派民主党的选票。最重要的是，知识产权市场研究院的安东尼奥·诺托表示“蒙蒂能够吸引到对现有的政党都没有兴趣的大约25%的意大利人的选票”，甚至能得到前喜剧明星贝皮·格里罗领导的反正统的五星运动的支持。

　　Big business and the Catholic church have already signalled their support for the primeminister. And Mr Monti could prove a good foil for the slick, showy tycoon. Mr Berlusconi hasbeen defeated twice in five general elections. Each time, his nemesis was another quietly-spokeneconomics professor with impeccable European credentials: Romano Prodi.

　　意大利财团和天主教会已经暗示了他们对总理的支持。而蒙蒂可以证明自己是这位华而不实，极尽炫耀的商业大亨很好的反衬。贝卢斯科尼在5次大选中2次落败。他的主要对手又是默不作声的持有无懈可击的欧洲证书的经济学教授罗马诺·普罗迪。

　　The snag is that Mr Monti’s real adversary would not be Mr Berlusconi, but the leader of thePD, Pier Luigi Bersani, who has pointedly warned the prime minister to stay out of the fray.Without exception, the polls show the PD and its allies with a substantial lead. Under Italy’selectoral rules, whichever coalition comes first receives a bonus that guarantees it a majority inthe Chamber of Deputies. But in the Senate the bonus is allocated region by region. The bigrisk for the governability of Italy after the election is a result that gives a coalition a majority inthe chamber, but not in the Senate.

　　真正的障碍在于蒙蒂的真正的对手并不是贝卢斯科尼，而是民主党的领导人贝尔萨尼，他尖锐地提醒总理远离这场争论。无一例外，民意调查显示民主党和其盟友大大领先。根据意大利的大选规则，任何一个处于第一位的联盟都有这样一个福利，保证其得到众议院的多数支持。而在参议院里，这个福利是按地区分配的。大选后的意大利施政将面临的最大危险是选举结果使得该联盟获得了众议院的多数支持，却没有得到参议院的支持。

　　A pro-Monti coalition would find it hard to overtake the PD nationally, but could ruin itschances of dominating both houses. A hung Senate might also give Mr Berlusconi, whose partyhas sunk to around 15% in the polls, his most realistic chance of retaining influence. But solong as Mr Monti was ready to join forces with Mr Bersani after the election, the PdL could bepushed firmly into opposition, along with Mr Grillo’s representatives.

　　支持蒙蒂的联盟发现要全国性地推翻民主党相当困难，但是可以毁灭其统治两院的机会。贝卢斯科尼领导的政党的民意支持率已经降到了15%，而悬而未决的参议院给他保持影响力提供了最现实的机会。但是只要蒙蒂准备好在大选后和贝尔萨尼通力合作，自由人民党将被牢牢地推向反对派，格里罗的代表也不例外。

　　Other calculations are weighing on Mr Monti. If he were to stand, he would have to give up hislife senator’s seat. A decision to run could mean he lost his chance to occupy the Quirinalpalace as Italy’s head of state when Mr Napolitano retires next year. That is where Mr Bersaniwould like to see him, as a guarantor of future reforms. Above all, there is the increasinglyunfathomable Berlusconi variable. If Mr Berlusconi were to pull out, or his party to implode,the temptation for Mr Monti to pounce might become irresistible.

　　其他政治猜测也压得蒙蒂喘不过气来。如果他继续担任总理的话，他将不得不放弃终身议员的席位。退出竞选的决定意味着他将失去明年纳波利塔诺退休后作为意大利元首进驻奎里纳莱宫的机会。而贝尔萨尼迫切期望他能作为未来改革的保证人呆在那里。毕竟，贝卢斯科尼的可变因素正变得越来越深不可测。如果贝卢斯科尼撤出大选，或其政党发生内讧，那么蒙蒂面临抓住这个机会的诱惑是不可阻挡的。